Coming into Saturday night’s UFC on FOX 30, there was little doubt that Jose Aldo was no longer the same fighter he once was. Not after his last six rounds of competition against Max Holloway. Not after being punished in both the physical and mental realms.
Over two fights, Holloway had decimated Aldo in a way that even Conor McGregor could not claim. McGregor knocked out Aldo in just 13 seconds, but it was a lightning strike, something precise but nearly impossible to replicate. He could win again, but not like that. Holloway’s two lookalike victories over Aldo left no room for any other interpretation. They were dominant, measured, absolute. And afterward, Aldo contemplated retirement. By the time he got to Calgary, he was somehow an underdog to Jeremy Stephens, who while riding a three-fight win streak, had never put forth the career consistency to become a championship-level fighter.
I have to disagree with this. You can’t analyze a fighter’s defensive abilities by just looking at the basic numbers. In his rematch with Frankie Edgar in 2016, Edgar only landed 29% of his significant strikes according to FightMetric. So if it was 33% historically, then he actually came in with improved striking defense against Edgar. In this fight against Stephens, Stephens only landed 33% of his total significant strikes, despite arguably having Jose hurt and scoring easy points that Aldo would probably have avoided if he wasn’t shaken.
And if you look away from the numbers, I would argue that there has never been a more impressive display of MMAstriking defense in terms of slipping and evading punches than in Holloway vs Aldo 2. Holloway gave Aldo a real thrashing in that fight, but it wasn’t because Aldo is more available to being hit than ever before. It was because Holloway beat Aldo with a higher pace than Aldo could maintain, unexpectedly countering Aldo’s counters and being willing to brawl more than Aldo. Aldo actually landed with more accuracy than Holloway, he just couldn’t maintain that pace while taking so much damage. And in the first round, Holloway only landed 28% of his strikes, well below Aldo’s 37% accuracy.
Holloway having only 28% accuracy in the first round against Aldo, landing only 25 of 89 strikes thrown, should say something about Jose Aldo’s defense. Against Pettis, Lamas and Stephens, Holloway was landing around 50% of his strikes, or more.
Jose Aldo is probably harder to hit than he has ever been. Unfortunately, he has been in so many wars, he just can’t keep up with young prodigies like Holloway. His reduced endurance can’t compensate for his improved defense. (And now, time will tell if even Holloway’s brutal style of fighting and training is catching up to him, at only 26 years old. Hopefully, that’s not the case.)
Posted by Calle on Jul 29, 2018 | 1:42 PM
Word
This site is great, but the writers don’t seem much into fight analysis, as they are more about the broader narrative … which is fine.. there are other places for in depth fight analysis
Anyway, I agree with what you said.. I’d add that Aldo’s style of head movement/defense in general drains his cardio, because he stands completely still and then reacts on a hair trigger.. he’s damn good at it, too, but he’s out of gas by the 3rd… he started training with pro boxing coaches and they have been teaching him to relax in between exchanges
Posted by The Last on Jul 29, 2018 | 2:15 PM
Good point.
People have argued the same thing about Conor too. When you rely so much on explosion and fast twitch muscles, depleting your stamina has a huge impact on your ability to evade strikes. And when you start to take damage, depleting your stamina further, it can quickly go downhill from there.
I’d love to see Aldo against the winner of Swanson vs Moicano. If Swanson wins, it’ll be a great chance for him to redeem his loss to Aldo. For Aldo, it’s a safer route towards a new title shot. Two veterans with a deep bag of tricks. A great match-up to showcase both fighters. And it’ll probably be a lower pace fight that allows both guys to be explosive over three rounds.
Posted by Calle on Jul 29, 2018 | 3:13 PM
https://www.mmafighting.com/2018/7/29/17626650/under-pressure-jose-aldo-makes-some-magic
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